Economic prospect for 2016

Monday, 18 January 2016
A string of socio-economic achievements in 2015 laid a firm foundation for positive outlook in 2016.

Economic spotlights in 2015

In 2015, Viet Nam succeeded in stabilizing the macro-economy; curbing inflation; and enjoying high growth rate, said Minister of Planning and Investment Bui Quang Vinh.

Noticeably, the economy expanded 6.68% in 2015, the fastest pace since 2008 while consumer price index plummeted to record low in 14 years to 0.6%. Industries especially processing and manufacturing ones became driving forces of economic growth.

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The economic restructuring was conducted towards higher competitiveness. Viet Nam jumped 12 notches on global competitiveness index.

Amidst difficult context, social security was ensured. Especially, job generation increased by 1.6% against 2014. The unemployment and poverty rate fell to under 4% and 4.5%, respectively. Viet Nam was honored as one of the pioneers in realizing the United Nations Millennium Development Goals particularly in poverty eradication.

In 2015, the number of newly-established and growing enterprises surged highly at 26.6% and 39%, respectively. The new policies like the Enterprise and Investment Laws (revised) were attributed to the boom of new businesses.

Meanwhile, the political security and social order were maintained.

However, obstacles are lying ahead. Sustainable growth quality remained modest. The economic restructuring only attained initial achievements. Other shortcomings included limited number of domestic enterprises, small-scale agriculture production, low living standard of ethnic people.

Forecasts on economic outlook in 2016

The National Assembly in October approved the Resolution on the 2016 socio-economic development plan with the targeted GDP growth rate of 6.7%.

The National Finance Supervision Committee (NFSC) on December 29 forecast that the national economy would keep on recovery and expand 6.7-6.8% next year while inflation rate may vary from 2-3%.

In 2015, international organizations also showed their optimistic outlooks for Viet Nam’s economic growth in 2016.

The World Bank (WB) recently said that improvements in business environment and consumption recovery were the key factors to Viet Nam’s economic growth in 2015.

The Asian Development Bank on September 22 raised the country’s economic growth to 6.6% in 2016 compared to 6.5% this year.

Earlier, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on September 22 lifted its growth forecasts of Viet Nam to 6.6% for 2016.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)) on October 7 announced that Viet Nam’s economic growth would accelerate to 6.4% in 2016.

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited commonly called ANZ on November 4 predicted that Viet Nam would attain the growth rate of 6.8% in 2015 and 6.9% in 2016, even 7% in 2017.

In its December report,the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation reported that the Viet Nam’s inflation was forecast to rebound to 4.9% in 2016 while the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth would surge 6.7%./.

Van Hai (Source: VGP)

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