Three scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2016-2020 period

Friday, 29 January 2016

The National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast (NCIF) has recently drawn up three scenarios for Vietnam's economic growth during 2016-20 period.

In the moderate scenario, GDP would reach 6.67% while inflation would be 4.58%. Meanwhile, under the positive scenario, a GDP growth rate of 7.04% could be achieved if economic reforms were hastened and risks of public debt and bad debt were solved effectively.


In the worst case scenario, Vietnam would have to face negative influence from the world economy besides the risks in financial system and increasing public debt. That might result in GDP growth rate of 6% and inflation hike of 7%.

Illustrative image

Nguyen Quoc Viet, head of Economic Development Faculty under the Vietnam National University, Hanoi, noted that in order to prevent the worst scenario from happening, it was vital to enhance the added value during the period of economic transition.


He said that it was important for the economy to be headed for sustainable rather than rapid growth.


Early, experts predicted that gross domestic production (GDP) would be average between 6.5-7% from now to 2020, higher than the average rate of 6% seen in the previous five-year period.


According to experts, inflation was expected to be controlled at 5-7% while the budget deficit was slashed to 4.8% GDP by 2020.


Record GDP growth in 2015

Vietnam’s GDP growth rate grew by 6.68% last year-the highest level recorded over past eight years.


According to General Statistics Office (GSO), last year’s GDP growth surpassed 6.2% target adopted by the National Assembly for the year.


GSO added that the average GDP per capita also rose by US$57 from last year, reaching about US$2,109 per person.


Inflation this year, on the other hand, stayed far below the red line of 5% issued by the National Assembly. It merely reached 0.6%, marking it as the lowest inflation rate in a decade, quoted GSO’s statistics as saying.


"Low inflation is a good sign for the economy as it helps to bring down the costs while increasing the market demand and export values at the same time," GSO general director Nguyen Bich Lam told the newspaper.


In an interview with the Voice of Vietnam, Nguyen Ngoc Tuyen, head of the economics, finance institute under from the Academy of Finance said, a below 5% inflation rate would create macro-economic stability and a favorable investment climate as well as help attract greater inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI)./.

Van Hai (Source:

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